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Folding AK in the Midnight Madness Poker Tournament. PDF Print E-mail

 

This is a tough hand from the early stages of the Midnight Madness poker tournament at Full Tilt Poker. Playing AK can be tough, but on a good flop you are usually going to chip up. I had a good flop in this hand, but a surprise bet by my opponent made me think twice if I was ahead. Here it is >

First questionable hand with AKos

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Relatively early stages, blinds are 30/60 and I raise UTG+1 to 180. Folded to the cutoff who waits for a few seconds and flat calls. The big blind calls as well.

Two callers with opposite profiles.

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The late position caller (1) is a mouse of all mice. In 24 hands he has has a ridiculously low 4 VPIP and 4 PFR. That means NO stealing, NO LP limping, and certainly very little aggression to this point. The BB is calling and playing a lot over 48 hands and is a gambler in my Tournament Indicator profile. Against these two players, I am quite concerned about pot size here and I feel I need this flop to hit me good.

Good flop, so I bet.

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These are the kind of flops you want in this situation, so I bet out 300 into a 570 pot. I could have bet a little more, but I really want some value from the BB and quite expected the LP mouse to drop the hand.

Good plan, but surprise!

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Allrighty then. The opposite of what I expected happened. The LP mouse has re-raised me and the BB gambler folded. The mouse has only has 1,180 chips left so I don't think a fold is in his playbook here. Against most profiles, in this situation in a $10 multi-table poker tournament I do the re-shove, and had this bet come from the the other player in the hand this is an easy decision for me.

Into the tank.

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I have to go into the tank (1) on this, because this bet is problematic for me. What does a super mouse call me with in LP? Here are the hands I am behind that his profile would have likely called me with > AA, TT, 88, and tied with his AK. I can safely eliminate a 4/4 player holding weak hands like AT, AJ and A8, but he could be making a move here with AQ or even KK, QQ, JJ.

But my profile indicates I am not goofing around either, and a player that sits there for so many hands doing nothing is probably watching too. So I feel him making a move on me with that much at stake, and with low blinds is a slim probability.

Turtleknife folds.

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Turtleknife folds. Yeah that was painful. I think that given all the factors, I am only ahead there LESS than 20% of the time and by shoving here I am either playing for a split pot or simply, crushed and eliminated. Keep in mind as well that I am Green MZoned and playing for your entire stack early in the tournament with top pair top kicker, well you better have a good read on your opponent to let it ride.

This is a GCI hand, and as such you should be waiting for a better spot. I am NOT saying it's wrong, but there are situations like this one that you need to analyze more deeply. I am left with 2500 in chips here and went on to finish in 12th place, but only because I gave myself a chance to do just that by folding this hand.